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Institute For Oil & Gas Training
OGI-1153 New

Scenario Planning for Base, Upside & Downside Cases Training Course

Duration
5 days
CPD hours
15
Language
English
Next date
05 Oct 2026
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Overview

Scenario Planning for Base, Upside & Downside Cases Training Course by Institute For Oil & Gas Training develops practical financial analysis and strategic decision-making capabilities for professionals responsible for evaluating uncertainty across oil and gas investments, projects, portfolios and operating plans. Scenario Planning provides a structured approach to understanding how changes in commodity prices, production levels, operating costs, capital expenditure, fiscal conditions, project schedules and market assumptions affect financial and strategic outcomes.

Oil and gas organisations operate across investment cycles characterised by fluctuating market conditions, complex project economics, long development periods and exposure to commercial and operational uncertainty. A single financial forecast does not provide sufficient visibility for decisions involving capital allocation, project development, portfolio management or strategic planning. Scenario design enables finance and commercial teams to construct credible alternatives around a defined set of business drivers and assess how different conditions influence value, cash flow, profitability and investment priorities.

This course addresses the practical skills gap between conventional forecasting and structured scenario-based analysis. Participants develop an integrated approach to driver identification, scenario design, plausible narrative construction, base case assumptions and upside and downside case development. The course also examines probability weighting, decision triggers, contingency planning and strategic option evaluation so that scenario analysis becomes a practical management tool rather than a static financial exercise.

Institute For Oil & Gas Training positions Scenario Planning within the wider discipline of petroleum financial analysis. The course connects financial modelling with commercial judgement, operational information and strategic decision-making. Participants examine how assumptions flow through revenue forecasts, operating expenditure, capital expenditure, production profiles, cash flow, project economics and investment decisions.

A strong scenario planning process begins with driver identification. Oil price, gas price, production volume, decline rates, drilling performance, project timing, lifting costs, development expenditure, inflation, exchange rates, taxation, royalties and financing conditions can each influence financial outcomes. The objective is not to create an excessive number of forecasts but to identify the variables that have a material influence on the business case and build coherent scenarios around them.

The course focuses on disciplined scenario design that distinguishes assumptions from outcomes. A base case establishes the central planning position using clearly defined assumptions. An upside case represents a credible set of favourable conditions, while a downside case examines adverse but plausible conditions. Participants learn how to avoid unrealistic scenarios by connecting assumptions to operational drivers, commercial evidence and business constraints.

Plausible narrative construction forms another important component of the programme. Financial scenarios become more useful when management understands why a particular outcome occurs and which events drive the change. Participants learn to connect quantitative modelling with a clear business narrative covering market conditions, operational performance, project delivery, costs, production and capital requirements.

The programme also develops probability weighting techniques for situations where management needs to incorporate different likelihoods into financial analysis. Participants examine how probability assumptions influence expected outcomes and how weighted analysis should complement rather than replace individual scenario assessment.

Decision triggers provide a practical connection between scenario analysis and management action. Participants learn how to identify indicators that signal when a plan requires review, when capital allocation should be reconsidered or when contingency actions should be activated. This approach supports more responsive financial planning across exploration, development, production, processing and energy transition portfolios.

Institute For Oil & Gas Training also addresses strategic option evaluation. Oil and gas organisations frequently face decisions involving project sequencing, investment timing, capacity expansion, asset acquisition, divestment, development alternatives and cost optimisation. Scenario Planning provides a structured basis for examining how different strategic choices perform under changing conditions.

The course is designed for professionals who need to make financially informed decisions under uncertainty. It supports stronger communication between finance, commercial, planning, economics, operations, projects and executive management teams by establishing a common framework for interpreting scenarios and responding to changing business conditions.

Objectives

  • Develop a structured approach to Scenario Planning for oil and gas financial analysis

  • Identify the financial, operational and commercial drivers that influence business outcomes

  • Design credible base, upside and downside scenarios

  • Establish robust base case assumptions using relevant operational and financial information

  • Develop plausible narratives that explain the logic behind alternative scenarios

  • Assess the impact of commodity prices, production, costs, capital expenditure and project timing

  • Apply probability weighting to selected financial scenarios

  • Establish decision triggers linked to measurable changes in business conditions

  • Strengthen contingency planning for adverse operating and financial conditions

  • Evaluate strategic options under different market and operating scenarios

  • Improve communication of scenario assumptions and financial implications to management

  • Integrate scenario analysis into budgeting, forecasting and investment planning

  • Distinguish between scenario assumptions, scenario outcomes and management responses

  • Strengthen cross-functional collaboration between finance, commercial, planning and operations teams

  • Support more disciplined capital allocation and portfolio evaluation

  • Improve the consistency and transparency of financial scenario analysis

Training methodology

Practical Scenario-Based Learning

Institute For Oil & Gas Training uses an applied corporate delivery model centred on realistic oil and gas business situations. Participants work through scenarios involving changing commodity prices, production assumptions, project costs, capital requirements and operating conditions. The exercises focus on decision quality, financial interpretation and management action rather than academic theory.

Case Studies

Case studies demonstrate how scenario analysis supports investment planning, project evaluation and portfolio decisions. Participants examine a base case and develop alternative upside and downside cases by changing selected commercial and operational drivers. Each case requires participants to explain the financial impact and management implications.

Financial Scenario Exercises

Participants undertake structured exercises covering driver identification, assumption setting, scenario design and financial outcome analysis. These exercises reinforce the connection between operational assumptions and financial results.

Group Exercises

Group activities replicate cross-functional planning environments where finance, commercial, operations and project teams contribute different perspectives. Participants compare assumptions, challenge unsupported inputs and develop coherent scenario narratives.

Management Simulations

Simulation exercises place participants in decision-making situations where new information changes the assumptions behind an existing plan. Participants evaluate the effect of the new information, review decision triggers and determine appropriate contingency planning responses.

Real-World Oil and Gas Applications

The methodology uses scenarios relevant to exploration and production, field development, upstream operations, capital projects, petroleum economics, asset portfolios and corporate planning. This keeps the learning directly connected to professional responsibilities.

Organisational impact

Stronger Financial Planning

A structured Scenario Planning process gives organisations a clearer view of how changing assumptions affect financial performance. Management teams gain a consistent framework for comparing base, upside and downside cases across budgets, forecasts, projects and portfolios.

Improved Capital Allocation

Scenario analysis supports more disciplined evaluation of capital expenditure. Organisations can assess project economics under different market and operational conditions before committing resources and can identify assumptions that have the greatest influence on investment value.

Better Risk Visibility

Driver identification makes material sources of uncertainty more visible. Finance and commercial teams can focus management attention on the variables that have the strongest influence on revenue, cash flow, profitability and project economics.

More Effective Contingency Planning

Downside scenarios provide a structured basis for contingency planning. Organisations can define potential responses before adverse conditions occur and connect those responses to clearly established decision triggers.

Improved Project Evaluation

Scenario design strengthens project evaluation by showing how project economics respond to changes in costs, production, schedule, prices and capital requirements. This provides management with a broader view than a single deterministic forecast.

Stronger Portfolio Management

Oil and gas portfolios contain assets with different production profiles, cost structures, development requirements and market exposures. Scenario Planning allows organisations to assess portfolio resilience and compare strategic options under consistent assumptions.

Better Management Communication

Plausible narrative construction improves communication because financial outcomes are supported by clear explanations of the underlying drivers. Management receives a structured view of what changes, why it changes and what action follows.

Faster Response to Changing Conditions

Decision triggers connect scenario analysis with management action. When defined conditions change materially, teams have a clear basis for reviewing assumptions, updating forecasts and activating contingency responses.

Improved Cross-Functional Alignment

Scenario development requires finance, commercial, operations, projects and planning teams to work from aligned assumptions. This reduces disconnects between financial models and operational plans.

More Consistent Decision Processes

A documented approach to scenario design improves consistency across projects and planning cycles. Organisations establish clearer standards for assumptions, scenario construction, probability weighting and strategic option evaluation.

Personal impact

Stronger Financial Analysis Skills

Participants strengthen their ability to analyse how operational and commercial assumptions affect financial outcomes. They gain a more structured approach to interpreting forecasts and identifying the variables that influence business value.

Improved Scenario Design Capability

Participants learn how to construct coherent scenarios rather than simply changing individual financial inputs. They develop the ability to connect assumptions across prices, volumes, costs, capital expenditure and project timing.

Better Strategic Judgement

The course strengthens the ability to evaluate strategic options under different business conditions. Participants gain a framework for understanding trade-offs and identifying actions that remain appropriate across multiple scenarios.

Greater Confidence in Management Discussions

Participants develop the ability to explain scenario assumptions, financial consequences and decision triggers clearly to senior management and cross-functional teams.

Stronger Contingency Planning

Professionals gain practical skills for identifying adverse conditions and connecting them to predefined management responses. This supports more disciplined planning across financial and operational functions.

Career Development

Scenario analysis is relevant to finance, commercial, planning, economics, project controls, investment and corporate strategy roles. The skills developed through the course strengthen professional capability in positions requiring financial interpretation and strategic decision support.

Who should attend

Finance Managers and Financial Analysts

They benefit from stronger scenario modelling, financial sensitivity analysis and interpretation of alternative business cases.

Petroleum Economists

They require structured methods for translating commodity, production and cost assumptions into alternative economic outcomes.

Commercial Managers

They gain tools for evaluating commercial exposure and strategic options under different market conditions.

Planning and Strategy Professionals

They strengthen their ability to incorporate uncertainty into corporate plans, portfolio strategies and investment decisions.

Investment and Portfolio Managers

They use scenario analysis to assess project and portfolio resilience and compare strategic options.

Budgeting and Forecasting Professionals

They develop stronger methods for constructing base, upside and downside cases for corporate planning cycles.

Project Controls Professionals

They gain a structured approach to assessing cost, schedule and production assumptions and their financial implications.

Business Development Professionals

They benefit from stronger analysis of investment opportunities, strategic alternatives and changing market conditions.

Finance Directors and Senior Finance Leaders

They gain a consistent framework for challenging assumptions and improving the quality of management decision support.

Commercial and Corporate Strategy Leaders

They strengthen strategic option evaluation and contingency planning across uncertain business environments.

Operations and Asset Managers

They gain greater awareness of how operational drivers affect financial performance and investment decisions.

Senior Managers and Executives

They benefit from a clearer framework for interpreting alternative scenarios and connecting financial analysis with management action.

Course outline

This module establishes the core principles of Scenario Planning within oil and gas financial analysis. Participants examine the difference between conventional forecasting and scenario-based planning and learn how to identify the operational, commercial and financial variables that influence business outcomes.

  1. ISO 31000 Risk Management

    • Provides recognised principles and guidelines for structured risk management

    • Supports systematic identification and analysis of uncertainty

    • Helps organisations establish consistent approaches to risk-informed decision-making

    • Provides a relevant framework for integrating uncertainty into planning processes

    Learning Outcomes

    • Explain the role of Scenario Planning in oil and gas financial analysis

    • Identify material business drivers affecting financial outcomes

    • Establish structured base case assumptions

    • Distinguish key drivers from secondary variables

    • Connect operational assumptions with financial consequences

    • Build a clear foundation for subsequent scenario development

This module focuses on developing coherent scenarios that represent credible alternative business conditions. Participants learn how to construct base, upside and downside cases while maintaining consistency between operational assumptions, financial variables and strategic narratives.

  1. SPE Petroleum Resources Management System

    • Provides a recognised framework for petroleum resources classification and evaluation

    • Supports consistent consideration of technical and commercial factors

    • Provides useful context for linking petroleum project assumptions with economic analysis

    • Strengthens the consistency of scenario assumptions related to resources and project development

    Learning Outcomes

    • Construct coherent base, upside and downside cases

    • Develop plausible narratives supporting financial scenarios

    • Connect operational assumptions with financial outcomes

    • Identify inconsistencies between scenario inputs

    • Explain the business logic behind each scenario

    • Present alternative scenarios clearly to management

This module examines how alternative scenarios can be assessed quantitatively to support financial decision-making. Participants explore probability weighting, scenario comparison and the interpretation of financial outcomes across different operating and market conditions.

  1. IFRS 13 Fair Value

    • Establishes a framework for fair value measurement

    • Uses market participant assumptions within fair value assessment

    • Supports structured consideration of valuation inputs and uncertainty

    • Provides relevant principles for understanding assumptions used in financial valuation analysis

    Learning Outcomes

    • Explain the purpose of probability weighting

    • Apply probability assumptions consistently across scenarios

    • Compare financial outcomes across alternative cases

    • Interpret probability-weighted results appropriately

    • Identify assumptions that materially influence financial value

    • Communicate the limitations and implications of scenario-weighted analysis

This module connects Scenario Planning with practical management action. Participants identify indicators that signal changes in business conditions and establish decision triggers that support timely review, escalation and contingency planning.

  1. ISO 22301 Business Continuity

    • Provides a recognised framework for business continuity management

    • Supports structured preparation for disruptive events

    • Establishes principles for response and recovery planning

    • Provides relevant guidance for linking identified conditions with planned organisational responses

    Learning Outcomes

    • Establish practical decision triggers

    • Connect triggers with defined management responses

    • Develop structured contingency planning approaches

    • Identify indicators requiring scenario review

    • Improve organisational readiness for adverse conditions

    • Integrate scenario monitoring into management processes

This module brings the course together through strategic option evaluation and integrated financial decision-making. Participants assess alternative strategies under multiple scenarios and determine how Scenario Planning supports investment, portfolio and corporate decisions.

  1. COSO Enterprise Risk Management

    • Provides a recognised framework for integrating risk with strategy and performance

    • Supports identification and assessment of risks affecting organisational objectives

    • Connects risk considerations with strategic decision-making

    • Provides relevant principles for embedding structured uncertainty analysis into management processes

    Learning Outcomes

    • Evaluate strategic options across alternative scenarios

    • Compare investment choices using structured financial analysis

    • Assess portfolio implications under changing conditions

    • Integrate Scenario Planning into strategic decision-making

    • Develop stronger links between risk, strategy and financial performance

    • Communicate strategic options and decision triggers to senior management

Certificate

Certificate of Completion

Attendees who successfully finish the course receive a Certificate of Completion from Institute For Oil & Gas Training.

Attendance Requirement

The certificate is issued upon completion of the course and fulfilment of the required attendance throughout the programme.

Course dates

  • Europe

    Middle East

    Asia

    Africa

    North America

    Online

    Fee: £4,200

  • Europe

    Middle East

    Asia

    Africa

    North America

    Online

    Fee: £4,200

  • Europe

    Middle East

    Asia

    Africa

    North America

    Online

    Fee: £4,200

  • Europe

    Middle East

    Asia

    Africa

    North America

    Online

    Fee: £4,200

Fees include tuition, course materials and refreshments. Need different dates or a different city? Ask about your preferred date.

Frequently asked questions

What is Scenario Planning in oil and gas financial analysis?

Scenario Planning is a structured approach to analysing alternative business conditions and their financial consequences. The course focuses on base case assumptions, upside and downside case development, probability weighting, decision triggers and strategic option evaluation.

Who is this Scenario Planning course designed for?

The course is designed for finance, petroleum economics, commercial, planning, strategy, investment, project controls, business development and asset management professionals across the oil and gas sector.

How is the course delivered?

Institute For Oil & Gas Training uses case studies, financial exercises, group activities, management simulations and realistic oil and gas scenarios to develop practical Scenario Planning capability.

What will participants learn about base, upside and downside cases?

Participants learn how to identify key business drivers, establish base case assumptions, construct credible upside and downside cases, develop plausible narratives and compare the financial implications of alternative conditions.

How does Scenario Planning support strategic decisions?

Scenario Planning provides a structured basis for evaluating strategic options under different market, operational and financial conditions. Participants learn how to use probability weighting, decision triggers and contingency planning to strengthen management decision-making.

Next: 05 Oct 2026

4 dates available

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