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Institute For Oil & Gas Training
OGI-1119 New

Production Forecasting & Decline Curve Analysis for Budgeting Training Course

Duration
5 days
CPD hours
15
Language
English
Next date
05 Oct 2026
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Overview

Production Forecasting & Decline Curve Analysis is a specialised oil and gas financial analysis course designed by Institute For Oil & Gas Training to strengthen the connection between field production expectations, operational assumptions, reserves information and corporate budgeting decisions. The course develops practical capability in Production Forecasting & Decline Curve Analysis so professionals can build defensible production outlooks and translate forecast volumes into financial planning, performance monitoring and revenue expectations.

Oil and gas organisations depend on reliable production forecasts to establish budgets, allocate capital, plan operating expenditure, evaluate asset performance and communicate expected financial outcomes across technical and commercial teams. A weak production forecast creates uncertainty across the entire planning cycle. Errors in expected volumes affect revenue projections, cash flow planning, operating budgets, inventory requirements, development decisions and management reporting. For this reason, production forecasting needs to be treated as an integrated business process rather than an isolated reservoir engineering activity.

The course addresses the skills gap between technical production forecasting and the financial requirements of budgeting. Participants examine how historical production data, decline behaviour, production efficiency and uptime, downtime and deferment assumptions, workover activity, infill opportunities and reserves information influence forecast volumes. They learn how to challenge assumptions, identify forecast bias and establish a disciplined process for forecast accuracy tracking.

A central focus is the development of production forecasts that support a clear volume forecast to revenue bridge. Participants examine how forecast production volumes feed into revenue planning and how changes in production assumptions affect financial expectations. This approach helps technical, finance and asset management teams establish a common understanding of the relationship between physical production and commercial performance.

The course also addresses the practical challenge of maintaining forecasts as operating conditions change. Participants explore rolling volume reforecast processes that incorporate actual production performance, updated operational information, revised downtime assumptions, workover results and changing development expectations. This supports more responsive budgeting and improves the quality of management information used for asset decisions.

Decline curve analysis forms an important component of the programme. Participants examine historical production trends, decline characteristics and forecast assumptions to establish production outlooks that are aligned with available field information. The emphasis remains on practical interpretation, structured analysis and commercial application rather than purely theoretical treatment.

The course also explores reserves to production alignment. Production forecasts need to remain consistent with the underlying understanding of recoverable volumes and development assumptions. Participants therefore examine how reserves information supports production planning and how inconsistencies between reserves expectations and production forecasts can be identified and investigated.

For organisations operating across upstream oil and gas portfolios, these capabilities support stronger coordination between subsurface, production, finance, planning and commercial functions. Institute For Oil & Gas Training positions the subject within the broader discipline of Oil and Gas Petroleum Financial Analysis, enabling participants to understand production forecasts as a critical input to financial and operational planning.

The programme is particularly relevant to organisations seeking stronger integration between technical forecasting and corporate budgeting. It provides a structured framework for reviewing assumptions, monitoring forecast performance, analysing deviations and maintaining production outlooks as new information becomes available.

Objectives

  • Apply Production Forecasting & Decline Curve Analysis principles to oil and gas production planning

  • Interpret historical production trends and establish structured production forecast assumptions

  • Evaluate decline behaviour and its relevance to future production expectations

  • Develop production forecasts that support corporate budgeting and financial planning

  • Connect forecast production volumes with financial expectations through a volume forecast to revenue bridge

  • Assess production efficiency and uptime when developing forecast assumptions

  • Incorporate downtime and deferment assumptions into production outlooks

  • Evaluate the expected production contribution from infill and workover uplift

  • Improve reserves to production alignment within asset planning processes

  • Establish practical approaches to forecast accuracy tracking

  • Identify recurring forecast bias and investigate the causes of forecast deviations

  • Compare actual production performance with approved forecasts and budgets

  • Develop structured rolling volume reforecast processes

  • Strengthen communication between production, subsurface, finance and commercial teams

  • Improve the consistency and transparency of production assumptions used in budgeting

  • Recognise how operational changes influence production forecasts and financial expectations

  • Support management decisions using clear production and forecast variance information

Training methodology

Institute For Oil & Gas Training delivers this course through an applied corporate learning approach focused on realistic oil and gas business situations. The methodology combines technical analysis with financial interpretation so participants understand not only how a production forecast is developed but also how its assumptions influence budgeting and commercial decisions.

Practical Case Studies

Participants work through oil and gas production scenarios involving historical production trends, declining assets, changing operating conditions and development activities. Case studies demonstrate how production assumptions evolve as new operational information becomes available.

Decline Curve Analysis Exercises

Practical exercises focus on interpreting historical production behaviour and developing forecast assumptions. Participants examine decline patterns, production trends and forecast periods to understand how assumptions influence expected future volumes.

Forecasting Simulations

Forecasting simulations replicate the decision-making environment faced by asset teams during budgeting and reforecasting cycles. Participants assess production data, operational assumptions and planned interventions before establishing an updated production outlook.

Budget Integration Scenarios

Participants connect production volumes with commercial planning through a volume forecast to revenue bridge. Exercises demonstrate how changes in production assumptions influence expected revenue and the wider budgeting process.

Forecast Accuracy Tracking

Participants examine actual versus forecast performance and establish methods for identifying recurring variances. Forecast accuracy tracking is used to identify whether deviations originate from production performance, operational assumptions, downtime estimates, deferment expectations or other forecasting inputs.

Group Analysis

Group exercises encourage participants from technical, financial and operational backgrounds to review the same production scenario from different organisational perspectives. This reinforces cross-functional communication and helps establish common terminology around production assumptions.

Real-World Decision Scenarios

Participants evaluate situations involving workovers, infill opportunities, production interruptions and changing asset conditions. The exercises demonstrate how forecast assumptions need to be reviewed when actual operating performance differs from the original budget.

Organisational impact

Effective production forecasting strengthens the connection between operational planning and financial management. For oil and gas organisations, production volumes represent a fundamental input into revenue expectations, cash flow planning, operating expenditure and asset performance assessment. Improved forecasting discipline therefore supports stronger coordination across the organisation.

Stronger Budget Quality

The course helps organisations establish more structured production assumptions within budgeting processes. Clear assumptions around decline, uptime, downtime, deferment and planned interventions create a stronger foundation for production-based financial planning.

Improved Revenue Planning

A structured volume forecast to revenue bridge provides a transparent connection between physical production expectations and financial projections. Finance and commercial teams gain clearer visibility of how changes in forecast volumes affect revenue expectations.

Better Production Performance Monitoring

Production efficiency and uptime assumptions become explicit components of the forecasting process. This enables asset teams to compare planned production with actual operating performance and identify areas requiring management attention.

More Effective Deferment Management

Downtime and deferment assumptions have a direct influence on expected production. A structured forecasting process encourages teams to document these assumptions and review them against actual operating experience.

Improved Workover and Infill Planning

Infill and workover uplift can significantly influence production expectations within appropriate asset development scenarios. The course provides a framework for incorporating these activities into production forecasts while maintaining visibility of their expected contribution.

Stronger Forecast Governance

Forecasting becomes more consistent when assumptions, revisions and variances are documented systematically. This improves transparency between asset teams, finance departments and senior management.

Better Forecast Accuracy Tracking

Organisations gain a structured basis for monitoring forecast performance over successive planning cycles. Forecast accuracy tracking helps distinguish isolated deviations from recurring forecasting issues and supports continuous improvement.

Reduced Forecast Bias

Forecast bias analysis provides insight into systematic differences between forecast and actual performance. Identifying persistent overestimation or underestimation helps organisations improve the assumptions used in subsequent planning cycles.

More Responsive Reforecasting

A rolling volume reforecast process enables organisations to update production expectations when actual results differ from the approved plan. This supports more responsive financial planning and asset management.

Improved Reserves and Production Alignment

Reserves information and production forecasts need to remain logically connected. Stronger reserves to production alignment supports more coherent asset planning and helps identify inconsistencies requiring technical or commercial review.

Stronger Cross-Functional Decision Making

The course supports a common understanding between production, reservoir, finance, planning and commercial personnel. This reduces the risk of different departments working from disconnected production assumptions.

Personal impact

Participants develop a stronger ability to interpret production information within a wider commercial and financial context. Rather than viewing production forecasts solely as technical outputs, they learn to understand how forecast assumptions influence budgets, revenue expectations and asset performance decisions.

Enhanced Forecasting Capability

Participants strengthen their practical ability to interpret historical production behaviour and establish structured future production expectations using decline curve analysis principles.

Improved Financial Awareness

Technical professionals gain greater understanding of how production volumes connect with revenue expectations and budgeting decisions. Finance professionals gain a clearer appreciation of the operational assumptions behind production forecasts.

Stronger Analytical Skills

Participants develop greater confidence in examining production trends, identifying variances and evaluating the underlying reasons for changes between actual and forecast performance.

Better Assumption Management

Participants learn to challenge and document assumptions related to production efficiency, uptime, downtime, deferment, workovers and infill activities.

Greater Forecast Review Capability

Forecast accuracy tracking and forecast bias analysis provide participants with practical methods for evaluating whether forecasting approaches remain appropriate.

Improved Commercial Communication

Participants become better equipped to explain production assumptions and forecast changes to finance, commercial and management stakeholders.

Stronger Reforecasting Skills

The rolling volume reforecast approach helps participants respond systematically to new production information rather than relying solely on static annual forecasts.

Career Capability

The skills developed through the course support professional responsibilities across production planning, asset management, reservoir management, petroleum economics, financial analysis, budgeting and corporate planning.

Who should attend

Asset Managers

Asset managers benefit from stronger visibility of production assumptions, forecast changes and their implications for asset budgets and performance.

Production Managers

Production managers gain practical methods for incorporating operating performance, uptime, downtime and deferment into production forecasts.

Production Engineers

Production engineers can strengthen their ability to translate production performance and intervention expectations into structured forecast assumptions.

Reservoir Engineers

Reservoir engineers benefit from stronger integration between decline behaviour, reserves expectations and production planning.

Petroleum Engineers

Petroleum engineers gain practical forecasting skills that support field development, production planning and asset performance analysis.

Petroleum Economists

Petroleum economists can strengthen the connection between production forecasts, economic assumptions and financial planning.

Finance and Financial Planning Professionals

Finance professionals gain a clearer understanding of the production assumptions underlying revenue forecasts and operating budgets.

Budgeting and Planning Professionals

Planning professionals benefit from improved approaches to production-based budgeting, forecast revision and performance monitoring.

Commercial Professionals

Commercial teams gain better visibility of production assumptions that influence revenue expectations, planning and asset decisions.

Business Analysts

Business analysts can apply forecast accuracy tracking and variance analysis to improve management information and decision support.

Senior Asset and Portfolio Management

Senior managers benefit from a stronger framework for reviewing production expectations, forecast changes and their financial implications across assets.

Course outline

This module establishes the relationship between production forecasting, asset planning and corporate budgeting. Participants examine the role of production volumes as a fundamental planning input and develop a structured approach to establishing forecast assumptions.

  1. Petroleum Resources Management System

    • The Petroleum Resources Management System provides recognised principles for petroleum resource classification and evaluation.

    • It supports consistent consideration of production, development and resource information.

    • It provides a useful framework for maintaining alignment between resource understanding and production planning.

    • Its principles support disciplined communication of petroleum resource information within asset planning processes.

    Learning Outcomes

    • Explain the role of production forecasting in oil and gas budgeting

    • Assess historical production information for forecasting purposes

    • Identify the operational assumptions that influence forecast volumes

    • Incorporate production efficiency and uptime into forecast thinking

    • Recognise the financial importance of downtime and deferment assumptions

    • Establish a structured foundation for production-based budgeting

This module focuses on the practical application of decline curve analysis to production forecasting. Participants examine historical production behaviour and develop structured production outlooks while considering the operational characteristics of producing assets.

  1. SPE PRMS

    • SPE PRMS provides an internationally recognised framework for petroleum resources management.

    • It establishes principles for consistent classification and evaluation of petroleum resources.

    • Its concepts support disciplined consideration of recoverable volumes and development assumptions.

    • It provides useful context for connecting production expectations with broader resource evaluation.

    Learning Outcomes

    • Apply decline curve analysis principles to production forecasting

    • Interpret historical production behaviour

    • Establish structured production decline assumptions

    • Develop production profiles suitable for budgeting analysis

    • Identify deviations from established production trends

    • Evaluate the effect of operational information on forecast assumptions

    • Strengthen the connection between production forecasting and resource management

This module examines how operational events and development activities influence production forecasts. Participants evaluate downtime, deferment, workovers, infill opportunities and reserves information to improve the credibility of production expectations.

  1. ISO 55001 Asset Management

    • ISO 55001 establishes requirements for an asset management system.

    • It supports structured management of assets throughout their lifecycle.

    • Its principles provide relevant context for connecting asset performance, planning and organisational objectives.

    • It supports disciplined approaches to asset information and performance management.

    Learning Outcomes

    • Incorporate downtime and deferment assumptions into production forecasts

    • Assess production efficiency and uptime assumptions

    • Evaluate the expected effect of workover activities on production

    • Incorporate infill and workover uplift into forecast scenarios

    • Review operational constraints affecting production expectations

    • Strengthen reserves to production alignment

    • Reconcile production assumptions with changing asset conditions

This module develops a systematic approach to monitoring forecast performance and updating production expectations. Participants examine actual versus forecast results, investigate deviations and establish practical processes for forecast accuracy tracking and rolling volume reforecast.

  1. ISO 9001 Quality Management

    • ISO 9001 establishes principles for systematic quality management.

    • Its process approach supports structured monitoring and continual improvement.

    • Its emphasis on evidence-based decision making provides useful context for forecast review processes.

    • Its principles support consistent documentation and review of forecasting processes.

    Learning Outcomes

    • Establish practical forecast accuracy tracking processes

    • Compare actual production with approved forecasts

    • Identify recurring forecast deviations

    • Perform forecast bias analysis

    • Investigate the causes of forecasting errors

    • Update assumptions using actual production information

    • Apply a rolling volume reforecast approach

    • Improve communication around forecast revisions

The final module connects production forecasting with financial planning and management decision making. Participants examine how forecast volumes translate into financial expectations and how production revisions influence budgeting, revenue planning and asset performance analysis.

  1. IFRS 6 Exploration Evaluation

    • IFRS 6 addresses financial reporting for exploration and evaluation expenditure.

    • It provides accounting requirements relevant to entities involved in exploration and evaluation activities.

    • Its principles provide important financial reporting context for professionals working with upstream asset information.

    • Understanding the standard helps participants distinguish production forecasting processes from the accounting treatment of exploration and evaluation expenditure.

    Learning Outcomes

    • Build a clear volume forecast to revenue bridge

    • Connect production forecasts with financial planning

    • Assess the financial implications of production forecast changes

    • Interpret production-driven budget variances

    • Improve communication between technical and finance functions

    • Integrate operational assumptions into financial analysis

    • Apply production forecast information to management reporting

    • Strengthen the overall connection between production planning and petroleum financial analysis

Certificate

Attendees who successfully finish the course receive a Certificate of Completion from Institute For Oil & Gas Training. The certificate confirms completion of the programme subject to meeting the course attendance requirement. Participants are expected to attend the required course sessions and actively engage with the programme activities.

Course dates

  • Europe

    Middle East

    Asia

    Africa

    North America

    Online

    Fee: £3,700

  • Europe

    Middle East

    Asia

    Africa

    North America

    Online

    Fee: £3,700

  • Europe

    Middle East

    Asia

    Africa

    North America

    Online

    Fee: £3,700

  • Europe

    Middle East

    Asia

    Africa

    North America

    Online

    Fee: £3,700

Fees include tuition, course materials and refreshments. Need different dates or a different city? Ask about your preferred date.

Frequently asked questions

What does the Production Forecasting & Decline Curve Analysis course cover?

The course covers production forecasting, decline curve analysis, production efficiency and uptime, downtime and deferment assumptions, workover and infill impacts, reserves alignment, forecast accuracy tracking, forecast bias analysis and rolling volume reforecasting. It also connects production forecasts with budgeting and financial planning.

Who should attend this oil and gas forecasting course?

The programme is designed for asset managers, production managers, production engineers, reservoir engineers, petroleum engineers, petroleum economists, finance professionals, planning specialists, commercial professionals and business analysts involved in oil and gas asset planning and financial analysis.

How is the course delivered?

Institute For Oil & Gas Training uses an applied corporate delivery approach incorporating case studies, forecasting exercises, decline curve analysis, production scenarios, group exercises, simulations and practical budgeting applications. The methodology connects technical forecasting with commercial and financial decision making.

How does the course support budgeting?

The course demonstrates how production assumptions influence financial planning through a volume forecast to revenue bridge. Participants examine how changes in production volumes, downtime, deferment, workover activity and infill expectations affect production budgets and financial forecasts.

What certificate is provided after completing the course?

Attendees receive a Certificate of Completion from Institute For Oil & Gas Training upon finishing the course, subject to meeting the required attendance requirement.

Next: 05 Oct 2026

4 dates available

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